One way of discerning the future is to look at the past, and see what trends seem to have a high likihood of continuing into the future. Below is a list of "positive long term trends."
Positive Long-Term Trends
Longevity and Population
- Life expectancy up over 200%: Life expectancy has gone up in every country in the world. In 1900, the average global life expectancy was 31. In 2000, it was 66.(1) Since 1950, global life expectancy has gone up 35%. In 1950, it was 48 years, in 2001, it was 66.7.(2) Such an awesome increase is unprecedented since life began on this planet. (China’s life expectancy increase has been even more dramatic: In 1930, life expectancy in China was 24; in 2000 it is close to 70— a three-fold increase in two generations.)
- Death rates down 40%: Death rates have gone down in every country in the world. In 1950 death rate was 15 per 1000 people, in 2000 it is 9 per 1000.(3)
- Birth rates down 40%: Birth rates have gone down in every country in the world. In 1950 birth rates were 37 per 1000, in 2000 they are 22 per 1000.(4)
- Population growth rate slows to 1.18%: Human population grew at the rate of 0.04% from 1 AD to 1650 AD, rising with technological and medical advances to an all-time high of 2.1% between 1965 and 1970. In the early 1990s, the annual average dropped to 1.6%.(5) In 2002 the population growth rate dropped to 1.18— the lowest it has been since rates peaked.(6)
- Average global fertility fell from 5.3 to 3.0 births per woman between 1960 and 2005.(7)
Health
- Today’s world population has the highest average level of health at any point in history.(8)
- Immunized children up 1400%: Basic immunization is estimated to have saved over 20 million children from all preventable lethal diseases since 1980.(9) In 1974, 5% of the world’s children were immunized against the six main vaccine-preventable diseases: polio, diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, measles and tuberculosis. By 2001, over 72% were immunized.(10) By 2006 it was over 80%.(11) In 2006, 25,500 children died every day from preventable causes. In 2010, that number is 22,000. (12)
- Infant mortality down 78%: Infant mortality has gone down 78% since 1950—from 250 per 1000 births to 56 in 2001.(13) Measured as a rate, infant mortality has been cut in half in 30 years (1973-2003), from 11% of live births to 6%.(14) Since 1960, infant mortality has been cut in half. 9 million children’s lives were saved between1960 and 2006 as a result of lower infant mortality rates.(15) Poorest countries of today (Haiti for example) have infant mortality lower than any country in the world of 1900.(16) We have gone from one child in five dying before their first birthday to one child in twenty.(17)
Child mortality down 40% to 80%: Under 5 child mortality has dropped from 37 per 1,000 live births in 1960 to 7 per 1,000 live births in industrialized nations in 2001—a drop of 81%; from 216 to 90 in developing countries (down 58%); and from 282 to 160 in the Least Developed Countries in that time span (down 43%).(18,19) About 2.5 million fewer children will die in 2000 than in 1990. Tens of millions will be spared from malnutrition, 750,000 fewer each year will be disabled, blinded, crippled or mentally retarded.
- Killer childhood diseases being conquered:
- Measles down 89%: Measles caused 7 to 8 million child deaths per year in the 1960s. By the late 1980s it was reduced to 3 million. By 1998 this was lowered to 900,000.(20)
- Diarrhea: As of 1995, more than 1 million child deaths per year from diarrhea were prevented through the use of the low cost therapy of oral rehydration.(21)
- Whooping cough, measles, tetanus, diphtheria: The number of children immunized against these diseases in 1970 was less than 10%; over 4.5 million children were dying each year from these causes. By 1990 nearly all countries reached the 80% immunization (75% for sub-Saharan Africa). This effort has saved the lives of over 3 million children per year.
- Measles down 89%: Measles caused 7 to 8 million child deaths per year in the 1960s. By the late 1980s it was reduced to 3 million. By 1998 this was lowered to 900,000.(20)
- Tetanus deaths fell 57% in the 1990s: In 1990, tetanus killed over 700,000 infants in the world. In 1998 this was down to 300,000.(22)
- Polio reduced 99%: In the early 1980s, 400,000 children per year were being crippled for life by polio. By 1990 it was cut in half to 200,000. By 1991 it was cut in half again, to 100,000. In 2002, there were approximately 1,200 polio cases in the world. All of the Americas, the entire western hemisphere, have been free of polio for over 10 years. In 2000 there were over 4 million children below the age of 10 who were growing up normally instead of paralyzed for life.(23)
- TB reduced—An aggressive treatment method has cured some 36 million people from tuberculosis (TB) over the past 15 years and averted up to 8 million deaths.(24) In the past 12 months alone, 2.3 million people were cured – the highest annual number ever for infectious patients.
- Maternal deaths dropped by one-third from 1990 to 2008.(25)
- Malaria in Africa reduced: eleven African countries have reduced malaria cases, or hospital admissions and deaths, by more than 50% in the last ten years; since 2005, the World Bank has financed 73.8 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets in Africa.
Malaria in China reduced 90%: Malaria incidence in China has decreased 90% since the early 1980s.(26)
- Guinea worm disease reduced 99%: Guinea worm disease has been reduced by 99% since the late 1980s—from over 5 million cases to less than 72,000 in 1998.(27)
- Access to safe drinking water up 173%: 30% of the people in the developing world had access to safe water in 1970; in 2000, the number has risen to 82%—despite the addition of 1.9 billion people.(28)
- Access to sanitation up 164%: 23% of the people in the developing world had access to sanitation in 1970; in 1990 it had risen to 44%(29) and by 2000 the number has risen to 61%.(30)
Nutrition
- Hunger down 15% to 46%: the number of malnourished people in the world declined form 956 million people in 1970 (25% of total world population) to 815 million in 2000 (13.5% of world population).(31) The % of the world living in countries where per capita food supplies were less than 2,200 calories per day in the mid 1960’s was 56%. In the 1990’s it was below 10%.(32)
- Per capita food consumption up 23%: The world produces 23% more food per person in 2000 than we did in 1961.(33) Per capita food consumption has gone up in every country in the world since 1950. All of the developed world, plus most of Latin America, and Egypt and Malaysia have reduced malnutrition to less than 10% of their children—the lowest in history.(34) Global per capita food consumption has increased 24% from 1961 to 1998;(35) in developing countries over the same period it has increased 38% (from 1,950 in 1961 to 2,663 calories per person per day in 1998.(36) In addition, the price of food has fallen by two-thirds from 1957 to 2001.(37)
- World less vulnerable to famine: Proportion of population of sub-Saharan Africa affected by famine between 1990 and 2005 was less than three-tenths of a percent.(38) Because of trade and global transportation and communication capabilities the world is less vulnerable to food supply disruptions.
- Iodine deficiency down: Over 60% of all salt is now fortified with iodine—thereby reducing the amount of iodine deficiency in the world, which has been the cause of brain damage in over 26 million people.(39)
Education and Economic Advancement
- Literacy levels up 220%: World literacy rates have risen from 25% in 1900 to 50% in 1950 to 80% in 2000(40) despite the addition of over 4 billion people to the world in the same period. Illiteracy among adults in low-income countries fell from 47% to 25%, and for women it fell from 57% to 32%.(41)
- Female literacy levels and education are up. Between 1970 and 2000, the global average ratio of female to male literacy has gone from 59% to 80%.(42)
- Primary schooling up 33%: Over 75% of the world’s children complete at least 4 years of primary schooling. This is an increase from the 1960s where the figure was at 50%.(43) In 1950, less than 50% of primary age children were enrolled in school. By 2000, it was 90%(44) The average number of years of schooling in 1900 was 2 years. In 2000, it had increased to 7 years.
- Computers up: The number of computers in 1970 was less than 100,000; in 1995 the number reached 160 million and by 2003 there were over 800 million.(45) Internet access is over 600 million in 2003. Over 50% of the households in the developing world own a television; there are 220 million computers in low and middle income countries.(46)
- Wealth increasing: Poverty has been reduced more in the last 50 years than in the preceding 500.(47) The number of people living in “extreme poverty” ($1.00 or less per day) has been reduced by 200 million between 1980 and 2000, despite the addition of over a billion people to the world.(48) Between 1990 and 2005, the share of the population in the developing world living below US$1.25 a day fell from 42% to 25%, reducing the number of poor by 445 million (from 1.82 billion to 1.37 billion).(49)
- The percent of poor people in the world has decreased from 50% in 1950 to 25% in 2000.(50) In 2007, this was reduced to 17%.(51) Over the past 50 years, some 3.4 billion people have become “not poor.”(52) More than 85% of the developing world and 90% of the developed world are richer than they have ever been.(53) Real income has gone up for 4.9 billion people in 160 countries in the world since 1985. 86% of humanity is richer in 1995 than they were in 1985.(54) China alone has lifted 400 million people out of poverty in the last 25 years.(55)
- Based on projected trends, global poverty measured at the $1.25 a day line will fall to 15 per cent by 2015, leaving 918 million people below the poverty line.
- Real per capita income up 43%: Per capita income rose 43% from $987 in 1980 to $1,384 in 2000.(56) According to another source, average income per capita worldwide rose from $2,113 in 1950 to $6,516 in 2003 (308%).(57) GDP per person has also risen over 25% from $5,688 in 1980 to $7,714 in 2002.(58)
- Economic expansion continuing: Gross World Product rose to $48 trillion in 2002, up from $6.7 trillion in 1950, $10.7 trillion in 1960, $17.5 trillion in 1970, $25.3 trillion in 1980, and $34.2 trillion in 1990.(59) In 2010, it is over $60 trillion.
- Over the past decade, the number of countries classified as low-income has fallen by two fifths, from 66 to 40, while the number of middle-income countries has ballooned to over 100.(60)
- Doubling the incomes of the world’s poorest 650 million people would take the same resources as adding less than 1% to the incomes of the world’s richest 650 million.(61)
Security and Human Rights
- Nuclear arsenals decline 44%: The explosive equivalent of 29.1 million tons of TNT- roughly 4,000 warheads was dismantled last year. In 1985 there were over 50,000 nuclear weapons; in 2003 there were about 28,000.(62) In 2012, there are scheduled to be less than 5,000.
- Fewer wars and war deaths: The number of major civil and international wars declined from 26 to 4 between 1991 and 2005.(63) Deaths from civil war are one-quarter of what they were in the 1990s. Deaths have been reduced from more than 160,000 per year to less than 50,000 per year. Since 1991–92, when there were 21 active major civil wars, the number has steadily fallen to less than 10 each year since 2002.(64) Battle deaths have dropped from an average of 164,000 a year in the 1980s and 92,000 a year in the 1990s to 42,000 a year in the 2000s.(65)
- There has been a reduction in coups d’état from 15 in the 1990s to 5 from 2000 to mid-2010.(66)
- Women’s rights improve. The percentage of seats held by women in national parliaments in the world increased from 10% to 16% between 1990 and 2006.(67)
Environment
- Protected areas up: There are now over 8,600 natural preserves and protected wildlife habitats in the world, with a combined area of roughly 792,265,000 hectares.(68) There are also 730 World Heritage Sites(69), up from 12 in 1978.(70)
- Solar energy up: Over 200,000 homes in developing countries are now using rooftop-mounted solar electricity panels.(71)
- Wind energy up: From 1998 to 2002, global wind energy capacity increased three-fold. Wind generated electricity provides enough power to meet the residential electricity needs of 35 million people.(72) The cost of wind-generated electricity has dropped from 38¢ a kilowatt-hour in the early 1980s to roughly 4¢ a kilowatt-hour today on prime wind sites.
- Automobile emissions down: Automobile emissions in the U.S. have been reduced 90% since 1970.(73)
Africa/China/India
- Proportion of population of sub-Saharan Africa affected by famine between 1990 and 2005 was less than three-tenths of a percent.(74)
- Proportion who were refugees was five-tenths of a percent.(75)
- Percentage who can read and write doubled between 1970 and 1999 (from 33% to 66%)(76)
- Life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East increased from 48 to 69.(77)
Between 1983 and 2003, India’s income per person doubled. China’s went up four fold.
- Africa's middle class has tripled to more than 310 million over past 30 years due to economic growth and rising job culture.(78) In 2009, Africa's middle class had risen to about 34% of the continent's population, or about 313m people - up from around 111 million (26%) in 1980 and 196 million (27%) in 2000. Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt had proportionately the biggest middle classes in Africa, while Liberia, Burundi and Rwanda had the smallest. It is estimated that the $1.25 a day poverty rate in sub-Saharan Africa will fall from 58% in 1990 to 38% in 2015.
- Global poverty reduction has been led by China, which cut its poverty rate from 60% to 16% between 1990 and 2005.
1 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 75
2 UNDP, Human Development Report 2003, (New York, UNDP, 2003, p. 240).
3 The World Bank, Human Development Report 2002, Human Development Indicators, p.50
5 Cohen, Joel E. "Population Growth and Earth's Human Carrying Capacity" (Science Vol. 269, July 21, 1995).
6 Vital Signs 2003, (Washington DC, Worldwatch Institute, 2003, p. 66).
7 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 63
8 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 76
9 United Nations Confronting New Challenges: Annual Report on the Work of the Organization, 1995, UNICEF Annual Report 1996
10 UNDP, Human Development Report 2003, p.212; and “Jabs for babies in hot places” (The Economist, April 28, 2001, p. 46).
11 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p.12 (WHO)
13 UNDP, Human Development Report 2003, (New York, UNDP, 2003, p. 212).
14 World Development Report 2003, (The World Bank, Washington DC, 2003, p. 6).
15 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p.9
18 United Nations Population Division in UNICEF Annual Report 1996; 2001 data from Human Development Report 2003.
19 http://www.unicefusa.org/campaigns/believe-in-zero/
20 ibid. and WHO, Removing Obstacles to Healthy Development (Geneva, WHO, 1999, p. 7).
22 WHO, Removing Obstacles to Healthy Development (Geneva, WHO, 1999, p.24
24 2009 Global Tuberculosis Control Report Update, World Health Organization (WHO) 2009.
25 John Wilmoth et al., United Nations, According to estimates for 172 countries and territories in the interagency report, approximately 358 000 maternal deaths occurred worldwide in 2008. There was a steady decline in the maternal mortality ratio, which relates the number of maternal deaths to the number of live births. At the global level, the maternal mortality ratio fell by 34% from 1990 to 2008. The biggest declines in this ratio were seen in eastern Asia and northern Africa (63% and 59%, respectively).
http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/88/10/10-082446/en/index.html
26 WHO, “Malaria 1982-1997,” http://www.whoint/wer
27 WHO, Removing Obstacles to Healthy Development (Geneva, WHO, 1999)
28 UNDP, Human Development Report 2003, (New York, UNDP, 2003, p. 257).
29 World Development Report 2003, (The World Bank, Washington DC, 2003, p. 6).
30 UNDP, Human Development Report 2003, (New York, UNDP, 2003, p. 257).
31 Vital Signs 2003, (Worldwatch Institute, 2003, p. 28).
32 Chareles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p.119.
33 FAO, in Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist, (Cambridge University Press, 2001p. 61).
34 United Nations Confronting New Challenges: Annual Report on the Work of the Organization, 1995, UNICEF Annual Report 1996
35 Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist, (Cambridge University Press, 2001, p. 61).
36 FAO AGROSTAT database, accessed in 2000
37 World Bank Food Index, in Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist, (Cambridge University Press, 2001p. 61).
38 Chareles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p.9
41 World Development Report 2003, (The World Bank, Washington DC, 2003, p. 6).
42 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 80
44 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 12
45 World Development Report 2003, (The World Bank, Washington DC, 2003).
46 Chareles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 41
47 UNDP, Human Development Report 1997, (UNDP, New York, 1998).
48 World Development Report 2003, (The World Bank, Washington DC, 2003, p. 7).
49 Millennium Development Goals Report, United Nations, 2009
50 World Development Report 2004 (The World Bank, Washington DC 2004), has slightly different figures for a different time frame: from 1981 to 2001 extreme poverty dropped almost in half, from 40 to 21 percent of global population; extreme poverty dropped by 400 million, from 1.5 billion people in the world to 1.1 billion.
51 Chareles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 19
52 Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist, (Cambridge University Press, 2001p. 72).
54 World Development Report 2003, (The World Bank, Washington DC, 2003, p. 7).
55 “Rich man, poor man,” (The Economist, September 27, 2003, p. 39)
56 World Development Report 2003, (The World Bank, Washington DC, 2003, p. 6).
57 Chareles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 19
58 Vital Signs 2003, (Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, 2003).
60 http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/nav-frameset.cfm?li=100664 (Brookings Institute 2011)
61 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 67.
62 Center for Defense Information, www.cdi.org.
63 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 88.
64 World Development Report 2011 p. 51 (The World Bank, Washington DC, 2011)
67 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p. 88.
68 World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK.
69 “World Heritage Site” is a UNESCO designation for cultural or natural sites considered to be of outstanding value to humanity.
70 Vital Signs 2003, (Worldwatch Institute, 2003, p. 52).
71 State of the World 1995, (Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, 1995).
72 Vital Signs 2003, (Worldwatch Institute, 2003, p. 38).
73 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
74 Charles Kenny, Getting Better, Basic Books, New York, 2011, p.9